They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. I think thats what the world needed. Please read our comments policy before commenting. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. Our roads need to be fixed. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! . Right now, its horrible. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Nothing is free, Hawker said. Im looking at both sides of it. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. I am under that impression. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. I just want Trump in. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. People need to get a job, get out and work. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. Blaine County. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. He cares about the American people.. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. Theyre scared. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. The counties are also mostly small and rural. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. And its never going to come back.. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Republican Gov. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. A lot of people think things are. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. But according to the. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Farming also is huge here. Required fields are marked *. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Its too big. It was easy. I kind of keep in my bubble. We need election reform.. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. They need to take care of the older people here. 0:00 0:00. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Two states have announced recounts. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. That is, until this year. Weve never done that before.. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine He didnt vote in 2016 either. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . Your email address will not be published. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it..

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